Even in a month of high profile releases, Super Mario Run is starting to stand out as one of the most buzzed about titles of the end of the year. Nintendo has begun a full-court press promoting the game, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen Apple lean so hard into a specific game partnership like this.
Analysts are already beginning to estimate how exactly Super Mario Run will perform for Nintendo, and predictions are rosy. Analyst firm Sensor Tower, who has done a lot of great work on Pokémon GO’s numbers, predicts that Mario will make about half of what GO made in its first month.
As you can see in the chart above, they’re predicting a $71M initial month, a little less than half of what GO did in July when it was a worldwide phenomenon. That’s also less than a rival like Clash Royale, but there are a lot of key differences here.
First, let’s be clear. GO was a hit on a completely different level than anything else that came before it. If Super Mario Run does even half as well as Pokémon GO, that would frankly be an incredible achievement. It would be even more significant for Nintendo itself, given that it has a more direct stake in Super Mario Run than it does GO.
Nintendo owns one third of The Pokémon Company, which partnered with Niantic to make Pokémon GO. Therefore, Nintendo itself is only reaping a fraction of the zillions that game has made. But while Super Mario Run was made in partnership with DeNA, Nintendo is way, way more involved in the production and publication this time around, which is why you have Reggie and Miyamoto showing up on Fallon to promote it. The result will be that they will see a huge portion of the revenue compared to what they got from GO.